FANTASY BASEBALL 2022: GOOD & BAD VALUES FOR HITTERS

The goal before every auction and draft should be to get the best values. The best values for the best players puts you ahead of everyone else and gives you the best chance to win your league. The focus should be on production not names. Remember, you’re trying to build the best team, not simply collect the best players. The better values that you can get, the stronger your team will be. Keep in mind that “bad values” don’t mean “bad players”, they’re just players whose production doesn’t justify their price. I used ATC projections in this article and the players are in order based on their price on Yahoo!. This is also primarily for auctions, as some “bad values” are fine as top picks, namely Vlad, Tatis, Soto.

C

There are two schools of thought on catchers: overspend to get the best due to scarcity, or spend as little as possible due to the weakness of the position. I side with the latter. The fact is that you should always pay or draft based on production not name value or position (obviously that doesn’t mean to just get multiple hitters for the same position when you have no place to play them). Catchers don’t get the same amount of AB’s as other hitters, so keep in mind breakouts and the underrated use of streaming hitters on hot streaks. The players are not listed in any particular order.

GOOD VALUES

1. Will Smith, LAD .263 28 HR 81 RBI 74 R 2 SB Smith is just about fairly priced. He’s basically stability for an overpay that may be justified at this position.

2. Daulton Varsho, ARI .252 15 HR 54 RBI 51 R 9 SB Varsho will actually be Arizona’s CF, so he will certainly receive more than the projected 300+ PA’s. The question is whether the price is too high based on expectations, as you should never pay for expectations only proven results.

3. Keibert Ruiz, WAS .271 17 HR 58 RBI 50 R 1 SB I expect him to bat high in the batting order, so his numbers could actually be better. As long as he’s cheap, he’s a very good gamble.

4. Tyler Stephenson, CIN .270 14 HR 57 RBI 62 R 0 SB I think that there’s a chance that he might actually do better than this. He’s worth a gamble if you plan to really spend little or draft low for the position.

5. Gary Sanchez, MIN .204 23 HR 58 RBI 53 R 0 SB Those are pretty brutal projections. He’s in his contract year however and the power is legit. He may still be worth giving one last chance to.

6. Mike Zunino, TBR .201 22 HR 49 RBI 51 R 0 SB I think that he will do much better than this. He hit 33 HR at the same 300+ PA that he’s projected to have. If you’re willing to sacrifice other stats and average for homers than he is your guy.

7. Mitch Garver, TEX .240 21 HR 57 RBI 56 R 1 SB He almost certainly hit more home runs than that. He hit 13 in 243 PA’s last season and this projection is for 425 PA’s. I also expect him to bat higher in the batting order than this projection implies, which will improve his RBI and run numbers.

8. Carson Kelly, ARI .239 15 HR 49 RBI 44 R 0 SB I don’t understand why projection systems are so down on him. An injury slowed him down last season. When he was healthy in March and April, he had a 213 WRC+. He won’t do that over the full season, but would a 20 HR 80 RBI campaign be unrealistic? He’ll get more than the projected 300+ PA’s if he stays healthy.

BAD VALUES

1. Salvador Perez, KCR .263 33 HR 98 RBI 74 R 1 SB 2021 is such an outlier, that it’s hard for me to believe that he suddenly got so much better in his early 30’s. His EV rose (from 91.0 in 2020 to 93.0 in 2021), but his HR/FB% was too high (26.4%). Nothing about his batting profile really changed, in fact he made less contact on inside and outside the box pitches and his SwStr% rose from 14.2% in 2020 to 18.4% in 2021. Call it a hunch, but I just see him going back to his career norms of 20+ HR, 80+ RBI and 60+ runs.

2. J.T. Realmuto, PHI .258 22 HR 80 RBI 76 R 12 SB If you’re getting him, then you’re basically overpaying for stability. I think that you can get good production for a lot cheaper than him, though I get the argument that it’s safer to just get him.

3. Yasmani Grandal, CWS .237 26 HR 72 RBI 72 R 1 SB The problem with him is that he’s coming off an injury and is 33 years old. He also never hits for a high average and I can see him declining and doing worse than his projections.

4. Willson Contreras, CHC .242 21 HR 57 RBI 61 R 5 SB His stats are not much better than the cheaper options, but he’s overpriced based on name value.

1B

This is one of the deeper positions, so it’s a good one to save money at or to skip early on in the draft.

GOOD VALUES

1. Cody Bellinger, LAD .243 28 HR 80 RBI 79 R 9 SB Talk about bargains! He’s also eligible for the OF by the way. If his shoulder surgery is the reason for his struggles in 2021, then he should bounce back in 2022, and that means look no further than what he did in 2019 and 2017. Basically he’s capable of MVP caliber campaigns and even his projected stats are well worth his price.

3. Rhys Hoskins, PHI .239 33 HR 83 RBI 85 R 3 SB I almost put him on the “bad values” list and maybe I still should. Is the difference in runs worth the price jump from Dalbec to him? I then asked myself the same thing based on his average as compared to more expensive players and decided that he belongs on this list.

4. Ty France, SEA .277 19 HR 73 RBI 74 R 0 SB I prefer his Steamer projections, which give him 23 HR and 83 RBI among other improvements. He definitely needs to add to his HR total to be a good choice, but if he does he’s a bargain at this position.

5. Ryan McMahon, COL .254 25 HR 85 RBI 74 R If he has a higher AVG or hits a few more homers, he becomes a bargain.

6. Bobby Dalbec, BOS .238 33 HR 82 RBI 68 RBI 3 SB Is it possible that he scores more runs? He can presumably bat higher in the batting order due to hot streaks, or even simply breaking out. The HR and RBI numbers are very good and he even adds a couple stolen bases. He’s a great bargain, when you look at more expensive players at the position.

7. Miguel Sano, MIN .224 33 HR 81 RBI 76 R 2 SB If you’re willing to stomach the AVG, Sano in his contract year is a definite bargain.

BAD VALUES

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR .306 41 HR 111 RBI 106 R 3 SB What?! How is he a “bad value”?! Well he’s a 1B and that’s a very easy position to fill cheaply, so even if you take a hit when compared to Vlad, you can make up for it with an elite player at a different position that you wouldn’t be able to get if you had Vlad. He also doesn’t help you in SB’s, which is a major issue for this price in Rotisserie.

2. Freddie Freeman, LAD .295 33 HR 97 RBI 109 R 6 SB He’s in the conversation for the best 1B in the game, but his slow start in 2021 alarmed me. The price is also prohibitive. There’s no more upside with Freeman, just downside or what he’s been the last few seasons. That’s not a bad thing, just keep in mind that he won’t really help you in SB’s and he’s expected to just barely get past 30 HR. If he was slightly cheaper, I’d say that it’s just about right, but I see him as overpriced.

3. Matt Olson, ATL .257 38 HR 103 RBI 89 R 1 SB His HR and RBI projections are great, but he hurts you in AVG and doesn’t help you in SB’s. I don’t think the difference in HR and RBI as compared to cheaper options is worth the cost.

4. Paul Goldschmidt, STL .279 31 HR 90 RBI 98 R 8 SB Compare him to Freeman and tell me that Freeman isn’t a massive overpay. That said, I question is 2021 was an outlier, as he was in decline annually from 2017 to 2019 and is 34 now.

5. Pete Alonso, NYM .258 41 HR 107 RBI 91 R 2 SB Does the difference in AVG between him and Vlad make the price difference fair? The same applies for his stats and the 1B on the “good values” list.

6. Jose Abreu, CWS .265 31 HR 105 RBI 86 R 1 SB At 35 for the entire 2022 season, I wouldn’t be surprised that he’ll do worse than the projections. The extra help in AVG just doesn’t justify the cost.

7. Ryan Mountcastle, BAL .263 30 HR 90 RBI 77 R 4 SB The stats are simply not with the price.

8. Max Muncy, LAD .246 29 HR 80 RBI 80 R 2 SB Look at how much cheaper players with similar production are and then at how he’s coming back from an injury. Easy overpay.

9. Kyle Schwarber, Free Agent .243 34 HR 81 RBI 85 R 2 SB I think that he may be a little bit overrated here, with unrealistic expectations. He only had similar numbers once in his career, back in 2019. He has platoon splits and is a poor defender, so it remains to be seen how he’ll be used by his next team. I think he costs more than he really is worth.

10. Jared Walsh, LAA .265 29 HR 94 RBI 77 R 2 SB I just don’t see him as offering enough to justify his price. He might not hit 30 HR and might not score even 80 runs. There are better cheaper options.

11. DJ LeMahieu, NYY (see 2B)

12. C.J. Cron, COL .268 28 HR 86 RBI 69 R 1 SB He’s a solid but unspectacular option that really should just be a waiver wire player, based on no upside and these projections.

13. Josh Bell, WAS .263 30 HR 95 RBI 83 R 0 SB He only reached 30 HR once in his career and I don’t believe the projection due to his streakiness. Definitely avoid at the price.

14. Joey Votto, CIN .253 29 HR 83 RBI 80 R 1 SB He’s also 38 years old. Very obvious overpay.

15. Anthony Rizzo, Free Agent .257 25 HR 76 RBI 78 R 5 SB Based on his projections, he’s basically a waiver wire guy at this point.

16. Yuli Gurriel, HOU .285 16 HR 75 RBI 73 R 2 SB Those are waiver wire player stats and he’s 37 years old.

17. Trey Mancini, BAL .259 24 HR 76 RBI 79 R 0 SB Those are waiver wire stats and there are better and cheaper options.

18. Brandon Belt, SFG .253 26 HR 67 RBI 72 R 3 SB His projections are that of a waiver wire player, add him being injury-prone and he’s definitely overpriced.

19. Spencer Torkelson, DET .253 19 HR 62 RBI 61 R 2 SB He might do better than his projections, but if he costs you more than a $1 or a very low draft pick, you’re probably overpaying.

20. Alex Kirilloff, MIN (see OF)

21. Austin Riley, ATL (see 3B)

2B

GOOD VALUES

1. Ozzie Albies, ATL .270 28 HR 89 RBI 97 R 17 SB He’s definitely not a bargain with that price and is overpriced in H2H due to his inconsistency, but in Rotisserie he’s the best 2B option available.

2. Ty France (see 1B)

3. Gleyber Torres, NYY .266 20 HR 72 RBI 70 R 12 SB Torres is coming off of a dreadful year, but maybe he can bounce back, as he did to close out 2021. The upside is there and the price is cheap, he’s also still eligible for SS.

4. Brendan Rodgers, COL .279 19 HR 65 RBI 66 R 2 SB I actually believe that his Steamer projections: .281 21 HR 75 RBI 78 R are more accurate. He’s expected to bat second in Colorado’s batting order and hit .284/.328/.470 in 2021. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a breakout season.

BAD VALUES

1. Trea Turner, LAD .300 24 HR 83 RBI 108 R 32 SB Those are good projections, but he’s way too expensive when his HR and RBI production isn’t elite and he’s had some injury issues in the past. I don’t even think that his RBI total will be that high as his highest was 77 last season and he’ll be batting leadoff. He also only hit 20+ HR once in his entire career and that was last season. Interestingly his EV actually declined from 90.5 in 2020 to 89.6 in 2021.

3. Mookie Betts, LAD (see OF)

4. Marcus Semien, TEX .259 31 HR 83 RBI 96 R 11 SB I question these projections as he only had 30+ HR seasons during the juiced ball season (2019) and his contract year (2021). His EV is an unimpressive 89.7 and nothing about his batting profile significantly changed.

5. Whit Merrifield, KCR .280 13 HR 65 RBI 89 R 30 SB The player that you’re really only taking for SB’s and AVG. I don’t recommend those types of players, as if his SB’s decline (as they did before), his value collapses with nothing to make up for it. Keep in mind that he’s 33 years old.

6. Jose Altuve, HOU .278 25 HR 75 RBI 104 R 6 SB As you can see he’s not going to help you in RBI or SB’s and won’t help that much in HR’s. He’s basically just name value at this point.

7. Javier Baez, DET .252 28 HR 85 RBI 81 R 15 SB I just don’t know if he will play hard after receiving his big contract. He hit .203/.238/.360 in 2020 and .248/.292/.484 in 2021 for the Chicago Cubs, prior to his trade to the New York Mets, with whom he hit an uncharacteristic .299/.371/.515. The issue with Baez is his abysmal BB%, which has been 5.9% or lower since 2016. His K% has risen annually since 2019 to reach 33.6% in 2021.

8. Brandon Lowe, TBR .258 34 HR 92 RBI 92 R 6 SB The stats look impressive (besides AVG), but based on how Tampa Bay platoons their players and his annually declining EV: 91.6 in 2019, 89.8 in 2020, 89.3 in 2021, I wonder if he’ll really reach these numbers.

9. Ketel Marte, ARI .293 22 HR 74 RBI 82 R 5 SB He just doesn’t stand out in any category and while that isn’t a bad thing, he’s just not worth the price when you can have Ty France or Gleyber Torres for a lot less and get similar or even better results.

10. Jorge Polanco, MIN .268 25 HR 84 RBI 89 R 10 SB You can argue that he’s worth the price tag, but nothing really stands out about his stats and you can get France or Torres for a lot cheaper or at a later draft pick.

11. Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA .242 21 HR 63 RBI 75 R 23 SB That production is basically useless in H2H and in Rotisserie unless he gets his AVG under control, he’s really only on your team for SB’s and that’s not good enough.

12. Tommy Edman, STL .268 13 HR 57 RBI 82 R 23 SB See Merrifield as it’s basically the same situation.

13. Jonathan India, CIN .259 21 HR 67 RBI 94 R 12 SB The AVG, HR and RBI are all problematic and make him not worth the price. Keep in mind his lack of track record.

14. Max Muncy (see 1B)

15. Jake Cronenworth, SDP .271 16 HR 70 RBI 82 R 6 SB His projections are definitely not worth the price tag.

16. DJ LeMahieu, NYY .284 16 HR 67 RBI 92 R 4 SB There’s nothing about his projections that makes him worth his price.

17. Chris Taylor, LAD .251 18 HR 68 RBI 77 R 10 SB Waiver wire player.

18. Kolten Wong, MIL .268 12 HR 54 RBI 75 R 14 SB These are the stats of a waiver wire player.

19. Jean Segura, PHI .280 14 HR 60 RBI 78 R 9 SB Another player who is only useful for SB’s and who doesn’t steal enough to make him useful.

SS

GOOD VALUES

1. Bo Bichette, TOR .292 28 HR 94 RBI 102 R 21 SB He’s priced about right as arguable the best SS in Fantasy based on value and price.

2. Xander Bogaerts, BOS .284 25 HR 89 RBI 91 R 7 SB He may be overpriced based on players who deliver similar production for less, but he’s also in his contract year (he is expected to use his opt-out) and a better season can’t be ruled out.

3. Corey Seager, LAD .293 24 HR 85 RBI 83 R 2 SB He’s definitely worth it in H2H, where SB’s aren’t that important. In Rotisserie, he’s priced just right and that’s being optimistic.

4. Dansby Swanson, ATL .248 24 HR 76 RBI 82 R 10 SB The AVG is an issue, but the rest is good value for the price. Keep in mind that he’s in his contract year, so his stats could be better.

5. Gleyber Torres, NYY (see 2B)

6. Brendan Rodgers, COL (see 2B)

7. Oneil Cruz, PIT .267 19 HR 62 RBI 64 R 11 SB Depending on when he gets called up, his stats could be better. He batted .333/.333/.667 in 9 AB in 2021. I think that he can put things together and be more valuable than his price. He shouldn’t be your starter at SS unless he’s your last resort, but he'[s definitely an interesting potential gamble.

BAD VALUES

1. Trea Turner, LAD (see 2B)

2. Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP .284 43 HR 103 RBI 108 R 26 SB He’s constantly been dealing with injuries lately, which makes me worried about investing for as much as he’s going for.

3. Marcus Semien, TEX (see 2B)

4. Trevor Story, Free Agent .255 27 HR 82 RBI 81 R 22 SB The stats (minus AVG) look impressive, but he also has terrible home/away splits and has only been hitting at a star level in Coors. I want to see how he does on a new team first before investing in him.

5. Tim Anderson, CWS .295 22 HR 68 RBI 100 R 19 SB Another player that you only really get for his SB’s and also AVG and run help. The problem with him is his BABIP’s have been insane over the last few seasons, .399 (2019), .383 (2020), .372 (2021)! He’s projected for a .349 one in 2022, but what if his BABIP finally normalizes to something like his .289 from 2018? That season he hit .240/.281/.406. Did you see his OBP? That’s another thing, he’s terrible at drawing walks. His peak BB% was 5.0…in 2018!! Don’t be there when he finally crashes.

6. Wander Franco, TBR .291 17 HR 81 RBI 91 R 7 SB Name value made his price a massive overpay. This is his first full season so there are likely to be growing pains and based on these projections he’s actually waiver wire material.

7. Francisco Lindor, NYM .253 27 HR 83 RBI 89 R 14 SB You could argue that he deserves to be considered a “good value”, but the AVG and SB’s scare me off when it comes to the price. Dansby Swanson is significantly cheaper and offers similar production.

8. Adalberto Mondesi, KCR .250 15 HR 58 RBI 62 R 42 SB He’s just not worth it. If he gets injured as usual or loses his starting spot, he’s a waiver wire player. He’s definitely obe in H2H and in my opinion should be in Rotisserie too, as the SB’s are his only asset.

9. Javier Baez, DET (see 2B)

10. Jorge Polanco, MIN (see 2B)

11. Carlos Correa, MIN .276 26 HR 88 RBI 89 R 1 SB He’s good but he’s clearly going for name value at that price. The power and SB numbers are just not there to make his price worth it and he’ll be worse moving to a pitcher’s park.

12. Jazz Chisholm Jr., MIA (see 2B)

13. Tommy Edman, STL (see 2B)

14. Bobby Witt Jr., KCR .263 22 HR 74 RBI 72 R 16 SB The stats look promising, but he’s never played a game in the Majors, so my own personal rule is to never spend more than $3 in an auction or a comparable draft pick on someone like that. If you have to spend more than that, pass.

15. Willy Adames, MIL .255 25 HR 71 RBI 79 R 6 SB Another player who is a waiver wire type based on his projections.

16. Chris Taylor, LAD (see 2B)

17. Amed Rosario, CLE .278 13 HR 61 RBI 74 R 16 SB He’s basically a waiver wire player.

18. Luis Urias, MIL (see 2B)

19. Brandon Crawford, SFG .258 17 HR 69 RBI 67 R 7 SB He’s definitely not worth the price.

20. Jean Segura, PHI (see 2B)

3B

GOOD VALUES

1. Rafael Devers, BOS .280 39 HR 107 RBI 98 R 5 SB This guy is worth the price and is easily the best 3B in H2H. In Rotisserie, the SB’s become a concern, but even then he’s an elite option.

2. Manny Machado, SDP .275 32 HR 101 RBI 92 R 12 SB If you can’t get Devers, then this is your next best choice. He’s not a bargain, but like Devers is worth the price.

3. Austin Riley, ATL .273 31 HR 97 RBI 84 R 0 SB I’m concerned about the effects of his sky high .368 BABIP last season, but the projections are good and he seems worth the price.

4. Nolan Arenado, STL .259 32 HR 101 RBI 84 R 2 SB Another good option for the position if you’re willing to stomach the AVG and SB’s.

5. Ty France, SEA (see 1B)

6. Matt Chapman, OAK .225 29 HR 78 RBI 77 R 2 SB The price is just right as if he gets his AVG under control he becomes a bargain. He did hit .278 in 2018.

7. Ryan McMahon, COL (see 1B)

8. Eugenio Suarez, CIN .224 31 HR 80 RBI 69 R 1 SB If he figures things out and bounces back to his 2019 numbers (.271 49 HR 103 RBI 87 R) then he’s a massive bargain.

BAD VALUES

1. Jose Ramirez, CLE .268 35 HR 101 RBI 102 R 26 SB Wait he’s a “bad value”?! Yes he is. He’s just unreliable and streaky. Just look at his FanGraphs profile that I’m linking to. Am I overly concerned? Maybe, but I’d rather stay on the safe side.

2. Wander Franco, TBR (see SS)

3. Adalberto Mondesi, KCR (see SS)

4. Alex Bregman, HOU .270 25 HR 86 RBI 84 R 2 SB He’s clearly just going based on name value and not his actual production.

5. Kris Bryant, COL .255 23 HR 71 RBI 85 R 7 SB Yet another player going by name value and not actual production.

6. Tommy Edman, STL (see 2B)

7. Anthony Rendon, LAA .275 23 HR 82 RBI 75 R 1 SB See Bregman basically as like him he’s going based on name value and not his actual production.

8. DJ LeMahieu, NYY (see 2B)

9. Yoan Moncada, CWS .263 19 HR 72 RBI 80 R 4 SB Waiver wire player costing more due to name value. Are you tired of me saying it yet?

10. Justin Turner, LAD .277 22 HR 76 RBI 77 R 2 SB He’s waiver wire material at this point.

11. Ke’Bryan Hayes, PIT .269 16 HR 62 RBI 79 R 13 SB He was basically a defense first player in the Minors, and is a waiver wire player based on these stats.

12. Luis Urias, MIL (see 2B)

13. Josh Donaldson, MIN .248 28 HR 77 RBI 80 R 0 SB He looks like a potential bargain until you realize how injury prone he is and the fact that he’s 36.

14. Jeimer Candelario, DET .259 21 HR 71 RBI 73 R 1 SB Waiver wire player.

OF

GOOD VALUES

1. Mike Trout, LAA (CF) .281 37 HR 95 RBI 96 R 6 SB As you can see he’s not much worse than Harper and Soto and has the potential to be better. The question is his health and an argument can be made that he can’t be trusted to stay healthy for the whole season. The price just seems too tempting not to roll the dice in my opinion however.

2. Kyle Tucker, HOU (RF) .279 32 HR 94 RBI 87 R 16 SB Are you surprised that his projections are right up there with Harper and Soto? Well they are and he’s quite a bit cheaper. I think that his value mostly comes in Rotisserie, but he won’t hurt you in H2H either.

3. Yordan Alvarez, HOU (RF) .281 39 HR 107 RBI 92 R 1 SB Alvarez won’t help you in stolen bases at all and does have some injury concerns, but he’ll help a lot everywhere else. I think that he’s just worth his price.

4. Aaron Judge, NYY (RF) .276 39 HR 98 RBI 98 R 5 SB I’m excited about Judge in his contract year, he’s capable of hitting 50+ home runs and his RBI and run numbers can be both over 100. As long as he won’t get another freak injury, he’s an intriguing player.

5. Nick Castellanos, Free Agent (RF) .279 31 HR 94 RBI 91 R 3 SB I question him hitting 30+ homers, considering he only hit 30+ in his contract year, but he seems worth his price otherwise.

6. J.D. Martinez, BOS (RF) .274 30 HR 95 RBI 85 R 1 SB I debated putting him on this list due to his obvious decline and age (34 and 35 during the upcoming season), but his stats fit the price and he’s also in his contract year.

7. Bryan Reynolds, PIT (RF) .285 25 HR 85 RBI 83 R 5 SB He has quietly strong projections, where a few more counting stats make him a bargain.

8. Giancarlo Stanton, NYY (LF, RF) .263 35 HR 94 RBI 79 R 1 SB If he can stay healthy then he’s worth the price, but his health and the run and AVG projections worry me.

9. Christian Yelich, MIL (LF, RF) .263 24 HR 85 RBI 77 R 13 SB Is it possible that he’ll bounce back to being a high average hitter? I’m holding out hope for at least one more season. If he does then he instantly turns into a bargain.

10. Cody Bellinger, LAD (CF, see 1B)

11. Ryan Mountcastle, BAL (RF, see 1B)

12. Franmil Reyes, CLE (RF) .255 36 HR 97 RBI 78 R 3 SB His run numbers can actually be higher, making him Alvarez-lite without the AVG.

13. Joey Gallo, NYY (LF, CF, RF) .210 38 HR 89 RBI 86 R 5 SB That AVG is brutal, but it’s his contract year and he’s custom made for Yankee Stadium’s porch for lefties such as him. He did hit .253 before and was working on improving his contact last season. He’s cheap enough where he’s a good player to roll the dice on.

14. Hunter Renfroe, MIL (RF) .241 32 HR 85 RBI 75 R 2 SB If you can stomach the average, he can potentially score more runs and then become a bargain.

15. Eddie Rosario, Free Agent (LF, RF) .262 22 HR 72 RBI 61 R 9 SB i really don’t see him falling apart like this, but don’t spend more than the minimum for him either.

16. Marcell Ozuna, ATL (LF, CF, RF) .264 24 HR 73 RBI 65 R 1 SB I think that he can do better than this, batting high in Atlanta’s batting order and could be a bargain.

BAD VALUES

1. Fernando Tatis Jr., SDP (CF, see SS)

2. Juan Soto, WAS (RF) .312 36 HR 104 RBI 111 R 10 SB Is he the best actual OF in Fantasy? Sure. He’s great. He’s not a bad value in a draft at all, in an auction though it’s a different story. As good as his numbers are, the difference between him and multiple cheaper options is not as big as the name value implies. Keep in mind that he’s not really a big help in SB’s.

3. Bryce Harper, PHI (RF) .277 37 HR 101 RBI 104 R 14 SB Basically the same reasoning as Soto, there are multiple significantly cheaper players who are not that much worse, but the difference in price makes them more valuable. You can have a couple of those players, but only one Harper or Soto and a scrub. Harper also has a history of injuries and inconsistency, which his price a risky investment.

4. Ronald Acuna Jr., ATL (RF) .281 37 HR 84 RBI 108 R 23 SB The problem is he’s expected to miss the first month of the season due to recovering from a torn ACL. It’s a serious enough injury that it could affect his speed and there’s always a chance for him to have a setback. The price is very risky considering all of these problems.

6. Mookie Betts, LAD (RF) .280 31 HR 86 RBI 113 R 15 SB There’s now ay that he lives up to these projections. As accurate as ATC often is, they don’t get every players right and he’s definitely one of those players. He only hit 30 or more home runs in one season in his entire career, in 2018. He also hasn’t been able to top 80 RBI since that season. He also doesn’t steal bases like he used to, stealing 16 in 2019 and 10 in 2021. He’s just not worth his price.

7. Luis Robert, CWS (CF) .286 29 HR 84 RBI 88 R 18 SB It’s pretty simple, he’s never played a full season or even half a season in the Majors and it’s unclear what spot in the batting order he’ll end up spending most of the season in. His potential is high, but it’s too much of a gamble relative to his price.

8. Starling Marte, NYM (CF) .277 17 HR 66 RBI 92 R 39 SB Expecting him to steal 39 bases at 33 is a bit silly when he was trending downward until his contract year last season. He’s an example of a player who will only help you if he steals a significant number of bases and is a bust if he does not. I’m pretty confident in my projection that he’ll be a bust this upcoming season.

9. Cedric Mullins, BAL (CF) .262 23 HR 64 RBI 88 R 27 SB I never recommend players whose main value is in their SB’s, because they typically fluctuate quite a bit. Based on his AVG and RBI. I’d say he’s not valuable much in H2H and he’s a pretty big overpay in Rotisserie. Keep in mind that he only had one good season too.

10. Whit Merrifield, KCR (CF, see 2B)

11. Teoscar Hernandez, TOR (RF) .266 34 HR 96 RBI 87 R 11 SB He has a career 29.6 strikeout % and I just worry about his average. He hit .230 the last time that he had a normal BABIP (.293 in 2019). The last two seasons it’s been .348 and .352. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets shuffled throughout Toronto’s batting order either. the price for him isn’t that bad to be honest, but I just worry that it can easily turn into an overpay.

12. Tyler O’Neill, STL (LF) .255 31 HR 82 RBI 79 R 13 SB I wonder if his stats won’t actually be worse than these. He had a .366 BABIP in 2021 when he hit .289 and K% was 31.3 while his BB% was only 7.1%. His profile is way too risky and even these numbers aren’t worth his price.

13. George Springer, TOR (CF) .264 35 HR 85 RBI 96 R 6 SB His projections are too optimistic. I don’t see him staying healthy for the whole season or driving in that many RBI from the leadoff spot.

14. Eloy Jimenez, CWS (LF) .270 31 HR 92 RBI 75 R 1 SB He won’t be batting high in the batting order, which is why his runs are low for his price. Add the low stolen base total and potential issues with his AVG and he’s more name value than actual value.

15. Randy Arozarena, TBR (LF, RF) .262 23 HR 85 RBI 72 R 19 SB Those projections plus Tampa’s platooning system mean that he’s unlikely to live up to his price tag.

16. Byron Buxton, MIN (CF) .270 29 HR 74 RBI 79 R 15 SB Not only aren’t those stats worth his price, but he can’t stay healthy at al as since he debuted in 2015, he was only able to play a relatively full season in 2017. He couldn’t even stay healthy in the shortened 2020 season. Easy pass.

17. Brandon Lowe, TBR (RF, see 2B)

18. Ketel Marte, ARI (CF, see 2B)

19. Kris Bryant, COL (see 3B)

20. Tommy Edman, STL (see 2B)

21. Mitch Haniger, SEA (RF) .248 32 HR 87 RBI 89 R 2 SB I just don’t think that he’ll match is projections. He was only a 30+ HR bat in 2021 and his EV was only 89.3.

22. Jesse Winker, SEA (LF) .286 28 HR 78 RBI 84 R 2 SB I don’t think that he can match his 2021 power outburst, when his EV actually declined from 2020 to 2021 and he didn’t hit the ball as hard as even in his prior non-power seasons.

23. Daulton Varsho, ARI (CF, see C)

24. Jared Walsh, LAA (RF, see 1B)

25. Kyle Schwarber, Free Agent (LF, see 1B)

26. Austin Meadows, TBR (LF, RF) .246 25 HR 82 RBI 76 R 6 SB Add Tampa’s platooning system and he’s an easy pass at his price.

27. Jarred Kelenic, SEA (LF, CF) .233 21 HR 66 RBI 66 R 12 SB He’s definitely overpriced based on these projections.

28. Trent Grisham, SDP (CF) .245 19 HR 65 RBI 82 R 15 SB Another player that’s overpriced entirely based on his SB’s.

29. Myles Straw, CLE (CF) .262 4 HR 73 RBI 73 R 30 SB See what I wrote about Grisham above.

30. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., TOR (LF) .261 23 HR 75 RBI 67 R 3 SB Waiver wire player.

31. Chris Taylor, LAD (CF, see 2B)

32. Adolis Garcia, TEX (RF) .230 26 HR 78 RBI 72 R 13 SB Waiver wire player.

33. Alex Verdugo, BOS (LF, CF, RF) .286 16 HR 66 RBI 85 R 6 SB Waiver wire player.

34. Dylan Carlson, STL (CF, RF) .256 20 HR 72 RBI 79 R 5 SB Waiver wire player.

35. Akil Baddoo, DET (CF) .244 18 HR 61 RBI 74 R 20 SB His only value comes in SB’s.

36. Robbie Grossman, DET (LF, RF) .241 16 HR 58 RBI 74 R 16 SB Waiver wire player.

37. Michael Conforto, Free Agent (LF, CF, RF) .256 24 HR 76 RBI 76 R 3 SB I’m not high on him and neither are the waiver wire projections.

38. Amed Rosario, CLE (CF, see SS)

39. Alex Kirilloff, MIN (LF, RF) .271 19 HR 66 RBI 59 R 4 SB Waiver wire player.

40. Trey Mancini, BAL (RF, see 1B)

UTIL OVERPAY

1. Shohei Ohtani, LAA .260 38 HR 98 RBI 93 R 22 SB The average, injury history and lack of a position make me tilt to the overpay side.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s