ANALYZING SOME OF THIS OFFSEASON’S FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (SO FAR) THROUGH STEAMER PROJECTIONS

How do some of free agent contracts this offseason (so far) look going into 2019?

J.A. Happ re-signed with the New York Yankees and will receive $17 million next year. How does Steamer project him to do in 2019?

GS: 29

IP: 168

ERA: 4.12

FIP: 4.17

K/9: 9.06

BB/9: 2.81

fWAR: 2.8

Doesn’t look like a pitcher worth more than $7 million a year to me. He’s also 36 with no upside. If Steamer is correct, this is going to be seen as a major overpay. Wouldn’t the Bronx Bombers had been better off just signing multiple high upside starters coming off injuries or down years as the Los Angeles Dodgers do? They could’ve signed multiple such pitchers to cheap one year deals totaling $17 Million together.

How about Matt Harvey? The Los Angeles Angels are paying him $11 million for next season, in hopes that they will finally contend with Mike Trout.

GS: 28

IP: 153.0

ERA: 4.70

FIP: 4.79

K/9: 6.79

BB/9: 2.61

fWAR: 1.0

Let’s just say that it’s not looking like a good investment.

Michael Brantley signed with Houston and will receive $16 million in 2019. How does he project to do?

G: 138

PA: 605

BATTING LINE: .282/.344/.445

HR: 17

RBI: 75

fWAR: 2.4

WRC+: 119

Brantley looks solid going into next season, maybe a little bit overpaid, but not so much that it looks like a bad deal.

Daniel Murphy signed what seems like a great deal with Colorado. Can you just imagine his bat at Coors Field? He will receive $10 Million in 2018, so let’s take a look at his projections:

G: 143

PA: 602

BATTING LINE: .306/.360/.506

HR: 22

RBI: 86

fWAR: 1.7

WRC+: 115

This deal certainly looks great upon looking at the projections. I expect his fWAR to be higher if he doesn’t play second base, as the projections assume.

What about Atlanta paying Josh Donaldson $23 million in 2019? How does he project to do in 2019?

G: 130

PA: 570

BATTING LINE: .257/.364/.479

HR: 26

RBI: 72

fWAR: 4.2

WRC+: 126

I expect him to have a much better batting line, but even with these projections, the deal looks very good for Atlanta.

Patrick Corbin will receive just $12,916,666 from Washington next year (before his salary jumps to $24,416,667 in 2020).

GS: 31

IP: 182.0

ERA: 3.43

FIP: 3.44

K/9: 9.35

BB/9: 2.63

fWAR: 3.5

Corbin looks like he will live up to his contract in 2019.

Let’s take a look at Andrew McCutchen. He will receive $10 million from Philadelphia in 2019.

G: 138

PA: 604

BATTING LINE: .263/.362/.474

HR: 26

RBI: 77

fWAR: 2.9

WRC+: 126

McCutchen’s contract actually looks like a solid deal.

Nathan Eovaldi will receive $17 million from Boston and I thought that it was a bad contract since it was signed. Let’s see if Stramer thinks that I’m right:

GS: 28

IP: 152.0

ERA: 3.90

FIP: 3.84

K/9: 7.96

BB/9: 2.34

fWAR: 2.7

While it doesn’t look horrible, it also doesn’t appear to be a particularly good deal either.

In conclusion, it seems that neither Happ or Eovaldi will live up to their contracts, while Donaldson, Corbin, Murphy, McCutchen and Brantley will.

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