FREE AGENT PITCHERS WHO MAY BE BARGAINS & FLOPS & PLAYERS WHOSE DEFENSE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED THEIR WAR IN 2018

Which free agent pitchers are bargains and which are likely to be busts? I decided to analyze the list.

BARGAINS

1. LANCE LYNN

Lynn’s fastball velocity improved from 92.6 in 2017 to 94.0 in 2018. His Swing% improves from 44.4% in 2017 to 46.3% in 2018. His K/9 rate improved from 7.4 in 2017 to 9.2 in 2018. He also improved his FIP from 4.82 in 2017 to 3.84 in 2018 and even better had a 2.17 FIP in 54.1 ip upon being traded to the New York Yankees. He was also a legitimate top of the rotation starter a few years ago. He’s likely to receive a 1 year deal at no more than $10 million.

2. MATT SHOEMAKER

Shoemaker’s FIP in 2018 was 3.35 (though it was in 31.0 innings). He also had 9.6 K/9. He has issues staying healthy, but he’s likely to not cost more than a year and a couple million and is a good gamble at that price.

3. SHELBY MILLER

Could he be a feel-good story next year? He pitched for 173 or more innings in a season from 2013-2015. He only pitched for 16 innings and had a 6.35 FIP, but had 10.7 K/9 and despite a slight drop, 95 mph fastball velocity. His Swing% went up from 45.1% to 47%. He should be had on a 1 year deal for at most a couple million.

FLOPS

1. PATRICK CORBIN

Corbin just signed for 6 years/$140 million despite only having one ace-like year, in his contract year. His fastball velocity declined from 92.7 in 2017 to 91.3 in 2018.

2. J.A. HAPP

Happ is 36 and had an FIP of 3.98 in 2018. His fastball velocity went down from 92.9 in 2017 to 92.7 in 2018, which is in my opinion an indicator of a further decline in the near future. I expect him to get something in the vicinity of 3 years/$42 million and he’s almost certainly not worth that contract.

3. NATHAN EOVALDI

Eovaldi has never pitched for 200 innings in a season and has come closest in 2014, when he pitched for 199.2 innings and produced a 4.37 ERA/3.37 FIP with 6.4 K/9. I just think that he’s too much of a risk and will likely receive something along the lines of 4 years/$60 million.

4. ADAM OTTAVINO

Ottavino has never been as good as he was in his contract year. He never even had an FIP below 3.00 until 2018. His fastball velocity however went down from 95.0 in 2017 to 94.3 in 2018. He’s likely to get a 3 year deal at around $27 million.

——————————————————————-

I also decided to take a look at players whose WAR was heavily affected by their defense in 2018. I used rWAR as usual and noticed that the oWAR and dWAR do not add up to the total WAR, so I assume that oWAR and dWAR are calculated separately from the actual “total” WAR.

PLAYER OWAR DWAR WAR

Nick Ahmed 1.1 2.9 3.2

Andujar, Miguel 4.6 -2.2 2.2

Harrison Bader 1.8 2.0 3.8

Charlie Blackmon 3.9 -2.7 0.8

Asdrubal Cabrera 3.2 -2.1 0.7

Lorenzo Cain 4.9 2.4 6.9

Nicholas Castellanos 4.7 -2.4 2.9

Matt Chapman 5.0 3.5 8.2

Paul DeJong 2.4 2.1 3.8

Delino DeShields Jr. 0.2 1.3 1.2

Derek Dietrich 2.2 -2.4 0.4

Harper, Bryce 4.2 -3.2 1.3

Teoscar Hernandez 1.7 -2.0 0.2

Rhys Hoskins 3.4 -3.6 0.5

Adam Jones 2.6 -2.3 0.2

JaCoby Jones -0.3 2.3 2.0

Kevin Kiermaier 1.0 1.8 2.5

DJ LeMahieu 1.2 2.2 3.0

Trey Mancini 1.2 -2.1 -0.1

Jose Martinez 2.8 -2.1 1.5

Jeff Mathis -0.7 1.2 0.2

Addison Russell 2.0 0.7 2.0

Marcus Semien 3.2 2.0 4.3

Andrelton Simmons 3.9 3.1 6.2

Kolten Wong 1.5 2.3 3.5

Bryce Harper stands out as someone whose defense significantly damaged his WAR. He should definitely not be a center fielder again.

What do you think? Let me know on Twitter @NeilfromNYC and in the comments.

Advertisements

2 comments

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s