There’s been a lot of talk about this free agent market being unfavorable for free agents. I decided to analyze whether the top free agents have been underpaid based on expectations. I’m not including free agents who didn’t yet sign.
1. SP PATRICK CORBIN
Expectation: 6 Years/$129 Million
Result: 6 Years/$140 Million
Corbin was clearly not affected by the free agent market, and in fact received more than expected.
2. C YASMANI GRANDAL
Expectation: 4 Years/$64 Million
Result: 1 Year/$16 Million
He apparently rejected 4 years and slightly less than $60 million from the New York Mets. It’s possible that his playoff struggles and subsequent benching by the Los Angeles Dodgers hurt his market more than we thought.
3. SP NATHAN EOVALDI
Expectation: 4 Years/$60 Million
Result: 4 Years/$67.5 Million
Another player that actually signed for more than expected. Ironically, Eovaldi is the type of player that certainly should’ve received less based on his peripherals and injury history.
4. CF A.J. POLLOCK
Expectation: 4 Years/$60 Million
Result: 4 Years/$50 Million
Pollock signed below expectations, but “only” by $10 million, and his injury history might have been a bigger barrier than expected.
5. SP J.A. HAPP
Expectation: 3 Years/$48 Million
Result: 2 Years/$34 Million
Happ’s age may have played a part in him receiving less years, but a higher AAV.
6. LF MICHAEL BRANTLEY
Expectation: 3 Years/$45 Million
Result: 2 Years/$32 Million
Another player that signed for less years, but a higher AAV. His injury history could’ve been a reason for this result.
7. LF ANDREW MCCUTCHEN
Expectation: 3 Years/$45 Million
Result: 3 Years/$50 Million
McCutchen has actually received more than expected, the interesting part is that unlike Happ and Brantley, he doesn’t have an injury history and isn’t over 35.
8. SP YUSEI KIKUCHI
Expectation: 6 Years/$42 Million
Result: 3 Years/$43 Million
There‘s actually more money involved, but the above is guaranteed. Kikuchi clearly was not affected by the market in a negative way.
9. 3B JOSH DONALDSON
Expectation: 1 Year/$20 Million
Result: 1 Year/$23 Million
Donaldson did better than expected, though it was by “only” $3 million.
10. SP CHARLIE MORTON
Expectation: 2 Years/$32 Million
Result: 2 Years/$30 Million
Morton did worse than expected, though by “only” $2 million.
11. C WILSON RAMOS
Expectation: 3 Years/$36 Million
Result: 2 Years/$19 Million
Ramos received less than expected. It’s likely that his injury history played a part in this result.
12. RP JEURYS FAMILIA
Expectation: 3 Years/$33 Million
Result: 3 Years/$30 Million
The difference is “only” $3 million and he didn’t even sign as a closer as expected.
13. RP ZACH BRITTON
Expectation: 3 Years/$33 Million
Result: 3 Years/$39 Million
Despite recent injury troubles, Britton did better than expected and didn’t even sign as a closer.
14. RP DAVID ROBERTSON
Expectation: 3 Years/$33 Million
Result: 2 Years/$23 Million
Robertson did worse than expected, which is surprising considering how other relievers did. It’s possible that the contract was affected by the fact that in an unusual circumstance, he represented himself.
15. SP HYUN-JIN RYU
Expectation: 3 Years/ $33 Million
Result: 1 Year/17.9 Million
Ryu received a qualifying offer, and due to his injury history, was going to be very negatively affected by it. As a result, he ended up accepting it.
16. RP ADAM OTTAVINO
Expectation: 3 Years/$30 Million
Result: 3 Years/$27 Million
Ottavino did only slightly worse as expected.
17. DH NELSON CRUZ
Expectation: 2 Years/$30 Million
Result: 1 Year/$14.3 Million
He received a year less, but more in AAV. Based on the fact that he can’t really play in the field anymore and is 38, this wasn’t much of a surprise.
18. 2B/SS/3B JED LOWRIE
Expectation: 3 Years/$30 Million
Result: 2 Years/$20 Million
The expectations were only a year off.
19. RP ANDREW MILLER
Expectation: 3 Years/$27 Million
Result: 2 Years/$25 Million
He did worse in length, but a lot better in AAV. Considering how he struggled with injury and performance in 2018, I think that this is more than fair.
20. RP JOE KELLY
Expectation: 3 Years/$27 Million
Result: 3 Years/$25 Million
No surprises here, as $2 million isn’t really that big of a difference when you factor in his track record.
21. RP KELVIN HERRERA
Expectation: 1 Year/$8 Million
Result: 2 Years/$18 Million
He actually did surprisingly better than expected.
22. SP ANIBAL SANCHEZ
Expectation: 2 Years/$22 Million
Result: 2 Years/$19 Million
He did as expected, off by “only” 3 million.
23. SP MATT HARVEY
Expectation: 2 Years/$22 Million
Result: 1 Year/$11 Million
He did worse than expected, though his track record indicates that a multi-year deal might have been an overly ambitious expectation.
24. SP TREVOR CAHILL
Expectation: 2 Years/$22 Million
Result: 1 Year/$9 Million
He did worse than expected, but his track record may have been a valid reason for this result.
25. 1B/2B DANIEL MURPHY
Expectation: 2 Years/$20 Million
Result: 2 Years/$24 Million
He did slightly better than expected.
26. 2B BRIAN DOZIER
Expectation: 1 Year/$10 Million
Result: 1 Year/$9 Million
He did as expected, as $1 million isn’t really that big of a difference.
27. 2B DJ LEMAHIEU
Expectation: 2 Years/$18 Million
Result: 2 Years/$24 Million
He did better than expected and didn’t even sign as a starter.
28. RP JOAKIM SORIA
Expectation: 2 Years/$18 Million
Result: 2 Years/$15 Million
The contract was largely as expected.
29. 3B MIKE MOUSTAKAS
Expectation: 2 Years/$16 Million
Result: 1 Year/$10 Million
He did worse in years, but better in AAV. However, he apparently rejected better offers.
30. SP LANCE LYNN
Expectation: 2 Years:$16 Million
Result: 3 Years/$30 Million
Surprisingly, Lynn received more years but at a lesser AAV.
31. RP CODY ALLEN
Expectation: 2 Years/$16 Million
Result: 1 Year/$8.5 Million
He received a slightly higher AAV than expected but at less years. It’s even likely that it was to his benefit, so he could rebuild his value. As a result I consider this to fall in the expected contracts.
32. RF NICK MARKAKIS
Expectation: 2 Years/$16 Million
Result: 1 Year/$6 Million
I’m actually surprised that he was expected to receive as much as he was.
33. SP DEREK HOLLAND
Expectation: 2 Years/$15 Million
Result: 1 Year/$7 Million
I’m not surprised at the contract due to his track record.
34. RP BRAD BRACH
Expectation: 2 Years/$12 Million
Result: 1 Year/$4.35 Million
His bad 2018 apparently really hurt him, though this feels pretty severe.
35. SP WADE MILEY
Expectation: 2 Years/$12 Million
Result: 1 Year/$4.5 Million ($500,000 in incentives)
His peripherals hurt his value significantly, that’s a clear indication of how Sabermetrics has influenced teams.
36. SP GARRETT RICHARDS
Expectation: 2 Years/$10 Million
Result: 2 Years/$15.5 Million
Despite his injury history, he actually outdid expectations.
37. RP JESSE CHAVEZ
Expectation: 2 Years/$10 Million
Result: 2 Years/$8 Million
This was largely as expected.
38. SP CC SABATHIA
Expectation: 1 Year/$8 Million
Result: 1 Year/$8 Million
Sabathia received the exact contract that he was expected to receive.
39. C KURT SUZUKI
Expectation: 2 Years/$8 Million
Result: 2 Years/$10 Million
Suzuki received slightly more than expected.
40. SP DREW POMERANZ
Expectation: 1 Year/$6 Million
Result: 1 Year/$1.5 Million
Pomeranz did a lot worse than expected, likely due to his injury history.
41. SS/3B MANNY MACHADO
Expectation: 13 Years/$390 Million
Result: 10 Years/$300 Million
Perhaps he was overrated? He’s a very good player but the expectations were for a contract for an elite player, though he still got that type of contract.
42. 2B/SS/LF MARWIN GONZALEZ
Expectation: 4 Years/$36 Million
Result: 2 Years/21 Million
He received less years, but at a higher AAV.
43. RF BRYCE HARPER
Expectation: 13 Years/$420 Million
Result: 13 Years/$330 Million
I think that his inconsistency played a part in this result.
44. C MARTIN MALDONADO
Expectation: 2 Years/$8 Million
Result: 1 Year/$2.5 Million
The expectation seemed a bit high for a career backup.
45. SP ERVIN SANTANA
Expectation: 1 Year/$6 Million
Result: Minor League Contract
Considering he missed most of 2018 and was terrible when he pitched, I think that the expectations were too optimistic.
46. RF ADAM JONES
Expectation: 1 Year/$8 Million
Result: 1 Year/$3 Million
The expectations were too optimistic based on his performance.
47. SP GIO GONZALEZ
Expectation: 2 Years/$24 Million
Result: 1 Year/$3 Million (on a Minor League contract)
His value has fallen drastically due to his declining advanced metrics, though this is still too far.
Let’s look at how this all adds up, I’m considering contracts where the result was close to the one expected as fitting that designation. I put Ryu in the “largely as expected” category, as he wasn’t expected to receive a QO and his acceptance had to be expected and technically kept him off the market.
Largely As Expected: 14
Above Expectations: 10
Below Expectations: 23
Well it definitely looks as if most contracts were below expectations. Many of them had good reasons for being so, but it was still surprising.
[…] MLB & Fantasy Baseball Analyzed looks back at the deals the top free agents signed this past offseason. […]
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[…] MLB & Fantasy Baseball Analyzed looks back at the deals the top free agents signed this past offseason. […]
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