DISCREPANCY IN FANTASY BASEBALL PLAYER VALUES
The key to having a successful fantasy baseball auction or draft is being able to get the most value for either your fantasy money or from your draft position. Finding bargains is a major way to do that. I will be using steamer projections and Yahoo! auction and draft values rounded to the nearest full number in this article. I will mostly focus on auctions but will provide the draft pick that they usually go for as well.
PLAYER #1: .227/37 HR/92 RBI/81 R/6 SB = $6/#123
PLAYER #2: .244/36 HR/98 RBI/81 R/3 SB = $18/#67
Player #1 is eligible for first base, third base, and the outfield. Player #2 is only eligible for the outfield. Player #2 has an average that’s better by 17 points, and will provide 6 more RBI but 1 less home run and 3 less stolen bases. Should you pay $12 more for that? I don’t think so. Player #1 is Joey Gallo and player #2 is Khris Davis.
PLAYER #1: .242/6 HR/42 RBI/60 R/46 SB = $19/#68
PLAYER #2: .249/9 HR/49 RBI/73 R/31 SB = $2/#229
Both are eligible for the outfield. Player #1 will steal 15 more bases, but are they worth $17 more? I don’t think so. Player #1 is Billy Hamilton and player #2 is Delino DeShields Jr.
PLAYER #1: .263/37 HR/98 RBI/84 R/4 SB = $24/#46
PLAYER #2: .234/31 HR/85 RBI/76 R/2 SB = $6/#132
Both are eligible for first base and the outfield. Now granted player #1 is clearly better. He will hit for an average that is better by 29 points, he will hit 6 more home runs, produce 13 more RBI, score 8 more runs, and steal 2 more bases. The question is whether this is worth $18 more? I think that might be a little bit too much of a price difference. Player #1 is Rhys Hoskins and player #2 is Matt Olson.
PLAYER #1: .252/24 HR/81 RBI/73 R/5 SB = $9/#135
PLAYER #2: .251/23 HR/73 RBI/72 R/6 SB = $1/#222
PLAYER #3: .249/26 HR/81 RBI/70 R/5 SB = $8/#124
PLAYER #4: .285/18 HR/70 RBI/63 R/6 SB = $14/#88
All of these players are third basemen. Is player #2 really worth that much less than the others? The difference between the first three players is so small that this type of difference in value is obviously wrong. Player #4 really only has an advantage in average and is worth $13 over player #2! Player #1 is Jake Lamb, player# 2 is Eugenio Suarez, player #3 is Travis Shaw, player #4 is Rafael Devers.
PLAYER #1: .291/27 HR/94 RBI/87 R/7 SB = $39/#16
PLAYER #2: .291/37 HR/104 RBI/96 R/8 SB =$34/#22
Player #1 is eligible for shortstop, while player #2 is eligible for third base BUT will be eligible for shortstop too a week into the season. Wouldn’t player #2 be a better choice for shortstop, with a different player starting there for a week? Player #1 is Carlos Correa and player #2 is Manny Machado.
PLAYER #1: .289/29 HR/93 RBI/94 R/16 SB = $49/#9
PLAYER #2: .251/27 HR/81 RBI/76 R/17 SB = $21/#66
Player #1 is eligible for first base and player #2 for first base and the outfield. It’s obvious that player #1 is better, but are 38 extra points, 2 extra home runs, 12 extra RBI, 18 extra runs and one less stolen base worth $28 more? Player #1 is Paul Goldschmidt and player #2 is Wil Myers.
PLAYER #1: .299/27 HR/90 RBI/103 R/21 SB = $49/#9
PLAYER #2: .296/23 HR/79 RBI/93 R/12 SB = $24/#81
Both are eligible for the outfield. Player #1 is better, but are 3 more points, 4 more home runs, 11 more RBI, 10 more runs, and 9 more stolen bases worth double the price plus $1?! Player #1 is Mookie Betts, player #2 is Christian Yelich.
PLAYER #1: .276/22 HR/83 RBI/87 R/12 SB = $22/#49
PLAYER #2: .262/22 HR/71 RBI/60 R/10 SB = $7/#124
Player #1 is eligible for shortstop and third base, and player number 2 is eligible for second base and shortstop. I should also mention that steamer’s projections for player #2 are actually lower than those of other systems, as those project a .270-.274 average and 70+ runs for him. Player #1 is Alex Bregman and player #2 is Javier Baez.
I believe in paying for production in the most efficient way. What do you think about these discrepancies? Do you agree with me? Do you disagree? Let me know in the comments!